2021商品和发展报告(英文 144 页)

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COMMODITIES &DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2021

Content

Acknowledgements.....iv

Notes...... v

Acronyms and abbreviations...... vi

Overview.... xi

Chapter 1. Background....... 1

1. Background.......2

References.....8

Chapter 2. The Commodity Dependence Trap.......9

2.1 Introduction.....10

2.2 The commodity dependence trap: A tale of three country trajectories......10

2.3 Measuring mobility between commodity dependence States.......14

A brief discussion of the methodology.....14

Empirical results......16

2.4 Correlates of commodity dependence.....18

2.4.1 Discussion of the variables.......18

2.4.2 Empirical results.......21

2.5 Conclusion......22

References.......23

Chapter 3. Commodity Dependence, Productivity and Structural Change.... 25

3.1 Introduction.....26

3.2 Labour productivity trends.......27

3.3 Structural change patterns......29

3.4 Sectoral productivity trends and drivers.......36

3.5 Conclusion......40

References.......42

Appendix A. Economies included in the data set used in section 3.2.... 43

Appendix B. Economies included in the data set used in sections 3.3 and 3.4..... 45

Chapter 4. Structural Transformation through Technological Change and Innovation.... 47

4.1 Introduction.....48

4.2 Stylized facts.......50

4.3 Technological landscape and gaps......54

4.4 Conclusion......66

References.......67

Appendix. Technological development index, 2019......68

Chapter 5. Enabling Technological Transformation.... 73

5.1 Introduction.....74

5.2 Enabling technological transformation......74

Diversification paths....76

5.3 Enablers of technological transformation and diversification paths.......77

5.3.1 Horizontal enablers .....77

5.3.2 Vertical enablers ......80

5.4 Implementing technological transformation......81

5.4.1 Illustration: Hard commodity export dependent countries.....82

Forward linkages......82

Backward linkages.......82

Intersectoral horizontal diversification....83

5.4.2 Illustrations: Soft commodity export dependent countries.....86

Backward linkages.......86

Forward linkages......88

Horizontal intersectoral diversification.......89

5.5 Conclusion......90

References...... 92

Chapter 6. Opportunities from Technological Revolutions..... 97

6.1 Introduction.....98

6.2 Technological revolutions.....99

6.3 Potential impacts of digitalization and Industry 4.0 on commodity

sectors and related global value chains...... 104

6.3.1 Commodity value chains....105

6.3.2 Commodity trade.......106

6.3.3 Commodity sectors and climate change.....106

6.4 Windows of opportunity in deploying digital technology and preparing

for Industry 4.0...... 107

6.4.1 Leapfrogging in infrastructure.....107

6.4.2 Facilitating trade.....108

6.4.3 Challenges.....110

6.5 Promoting structural transformation through economic diversification

and technological upgrading...... 110

6.6 Conclusion.... 113

References..... 114

Chapter 7. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations....... 117

Measures at the national level.... 118

Measures at the regional level.... 119

Measures at the international level...... 120

References..... 122

Figures

Figure 2.1 (a) Zambia: Main merchandise exports in 1965, 1985, 2005 and 2018....11

Figure 2.1 (b) Nigeria: Main merchandise exports in 1965, 1985, 2005 and 2018 ....12

Figure 2.1 (c) Costa Rica: Main merchandise exports in 1965, 1985, 2005 and 2018 .....12

Figure 2.2 Commodity prices: A sixty-year perspective....15

Figure 2.3 Long-term distribution of countries in the three states .......18

Figure 2.4 Technology level in commodity dependent developing countries and

non-commodity dependent developing countries....21

Figure 3.1 Median labour productivity......27

Figure 3.2 Average annual growth rate of labour productivity, 1995–2018.......28

Figure 3.3 Labour productivity, 1995–2018......29

Figure 3.4 Commodity dependent developing countries: Average sectoral shares.......31

Figure 3.5 Manufacturing and output linkages, 2019.......31

Figure 3.6 Average share of manufacturing......32

Figure 3.7 Share of global manufacturing employment....33

Figure 3.8 Global manufacturing value added......34

Figure 3.9 Change in average sectoral employment share, 1995–2017.......34

Figure 3.10 Median labour productivity levels, 2017......35

Figure 3.11 Average aggregate labour productivity and indicators of technological

development, 2015–2017.......38

Figure 3.12 Manufacturing sector, 1995–2017.......40

Figure 4.1 Drivers of structural transformation.....49

Figure 4.2 Diversification and output, 2019......50

Figure 4.3 Diversification and exports, 2019....51

Figure 4.4 Complexity of product mix of exports, 2019....52

Figure 4.5 Viet Nam: Increasing complexity of product mix of exports.....52

Figure 4.6 Product space....54

Figure 4.7 Technological development index, 2019......58

Figure 4.8 Commodity dependent developing countries: Technological development

index by type of commodity dependence......59

Figure 4.9 Commodity dependent developing countries: Technological development

index by level of income......59

Figure 4.10 Technological development index, 2019......60

Figure 4.11 Commodity dependent developing countries: Technological development

index (median by type of commodity)......60

Figure 4.12 Technological development index: Countries with greatest gains.....61

Figure 4.13 Commodity dependent developing countries: Complexity of product mix of

exports by sector, 2019 .....62

Figure 4.14 Evolution of distribution of product complexity, agricultural products as

main commodity exports....64

Figure 4.15 Evolution of distribution of product complexity, fuel-related products as

main commodity exports....65

Figure 4.16 Evolution of distribution of product complexity, minerals, ores and metals as

main commodity exports.......66

Figure 5.1 Diversification paths in a nutshell.....76

Figure 6.1 Technological revolutions: Two latest waves....98

Figure 6.2 Technological revolutions: Uneven deployment..... 101

Figure 6.3 Frontier technology readiness index...... 103

Figure 6.4 Population that could be served by mini-grid and off-grid solar photovoltaic

solutions, to bring electricity to all by 2030.... 108

Figure 6.5 Promoting structural transformation through technological transformation.... 111