CSBA：应对中国南中国海冒险对策研究报告(英文 88 页)

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COUNTERING CHINA’S ADVENTURISM IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. i

CHAPTER 1: THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S CHALLENGE . 1

Key Drivers. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . 1

CHAPTER 2: THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN BEIJING’S CALCULATIONS. 11

Strategic Significance. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Timeline of Chinese Operations in the South China Sea. . . . .. . . . . . . . . 12

Analysis of Chinese Expansion into the South China Sea. . . . .. . . . . . . . 24

CHAPTER 3: THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSE ALLIES—IS IT WORKING?. 27

CHAPTER 4: TOWARDS AN ALLIED STRATEGY. 41

Strategic Logic and Strategy Options. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . 41

China’s Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT). . . . .42

U.S. and Ally Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. . . . .. . 45

What are the Broad Options for a More Competitive Allied Strategy?. . . . .48

Key Characteristics of an Allied Competitive Strategy for the South China Sea. . . . . . .. 51

What Specific Types of Action Deserve Consideration?. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . 52

Who Should Do What?. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

CHAPTER 5: ILLUSTRATIVE ALLIED CAMPAIGNS. 55

Options. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .  . . 55

Draft Criteria for Evaluating and Selecting Campaign Options . . . . .. . . . . 61

Allied Decision-Making. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

CONCLUSIONS. 65

Key Conclusions. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .65

Potential Topics for Future Research. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . 68

APPENDIX A. 71

LIST OF ACRONYMS. 73