摩根斯坦利：批发 & 投资银行业务展望( 英文 95页)

---

Wholesale & Investment Banking Outlook

Global Banking Fractures: The Implications

Joint Executive Summary: The Three Biggest Challenges 3

Key Findings of Our Proprietary OTC Survey 6

Morgan Stanley: Stock Implications of Our Joint Findings 7

1) Impact of Balkanisation/subsidiarisation on returns and models 10

2) Impact of the transformation of OTC markets: winners and loser 11

3) “Decision Time” – One year on: much done, much still to do. Operating gearing and scale are now the issues 14

Chapter 1: Structural Reform and De-globalisation 19

Chapter 2: Shifting Sources of Value 27

Chapter 3: Returns and Industry Structure 38

Key Stock Calls 47

Impact of OTC transformation is overestimated for leading banks 58

Balkanisation: a major headache for European firms, US firms advantaged 69

“Decision Time” – 1 year on: much done, much still to do. Addressing operating gearing and scale dominate 75

Appendix 84