毕马威：全球汽车行业高管调查(英文 24页)

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23rd Annual Global Automotive Executive Survey

Auto leaders prepare to seize big opportunities

Main findings

The global outlook

•Auto executives are more optimistic than in 2021 about

the prospects for long-term, profitable growth. Eighty-three percent are confident of higher profits over the next five years, compared with 53 percent in 2021.

•They have become more cautious about near-term results, however, given the headwinds facing the global economy: 76 percent are concerned that inflation and high interest rates will adversely affect their business in 2023.

Future of powertrains

•Expectations of global electric vehicle (EV) sales in 2030 are becoming more realistic. In 2021, executives predicted that EVs would capture between 20 percent and 70 percent of the market by 2030. Now they are taking a more cautious view of the challenges of shifting to battery power, with forecasts varying from 10 percent to around 40 percent of sales by 2030.

•Specifically, executives have greatly tempered their expectations about EV sales growth in India (poor infrastructure), Brazil (biofuels as an alternative) and Japan

(a focus on hybrid and energy sources other than batteries).

•There is, though, more confidence that EVs will achieve cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles without government help. Eighty-two percent believe that in the next 10 years EVs can be adopted widely without subsidies. And 21 percent, three times the proportion in 2021, do not think governments should provide any direct consumer subsidies for EVs.

Digital consumers

•With the proliferation of new models, entrants, and technologies, executives believe consumer buying decisions in the next five years will focus on driving performance and brand image. Data privacy and security are also key factors in purchase decisions.

•Car customers are expected to shop increasingly online, opening opportunities for manufacturers to sell directly to consumers, as well as online through dealerships. Traditional e-commerce players will also compete for car purchasers.

•Auto executives are very optimistic about the prospects for after-sale revenues. Sixty-two percent are very confident that consumers will be willing to pay monthly subscription fees for software services such as EV charging, car-maintenance analytics, advanced driver assistance, and other over-the-air updates.

•Executives think automakers continue to see the insurance market as a key growth opportunity, but they have shifted focus from competing against insurers to partnering with them or selling them data.

Vulnerable supply chains

•Executives remain very concerned about supplies of commodities and components, especially semiconductors, as well as items such as electrical steel and lightweight materials that are crucial to increase fuel efficiency and extend battery range.

•In response to the vulnerability of supplies, car makers are focusing on near-shoring and on-shoring, in an effort to reduce their reliance on only one or two countries.

New technologies and new entrants

•Many executives think Apple will enter the car market and become a leader in EVs by 2030, moving to fourth place in the survey from ninth in 2021. Tesla is expected to remain the market leader in EVs.

•Whichever company becomes the leader, nine in 10 executives say start-ups will have a sizeable effect on the auto industry.

•More than one in five say they are extremely likely to sell non-strategic parts of their businesses, given the massive investments required to compete.

•Contract manufacturing will become even more strategic going forward.

第 23 届年度全球汽车业高管调查

汽车领导者准备抓住大机遇

主要发现

全球展望

•汽车行业高管比 2021 年更乐观

长期盈利增长的前景。 83% 的人有信心在未来五年获得更高的利润，而 2021 年这一比例为 53%。

•然而，考虑到全球经济面临的逆风，他们对近期业绩变得更加谨慎：76% 的人担心通货膨胀和高利率将对其 2023 年的业务产生不利影响。

动力总成的未来

•对2030 年全球电动汽车(EV) 销量的预期越来越现实。 2021 年，高管们预测，到 2030 年，电动汽车将占据 20% 到 70% 的市场份额。现在，他们对转向电池动力的挑战持更加谨慎的态度，预测占销售额的 10% 到 40% 左右不等 到 2030 年。

•具体来说，高管们大大降低了他们对印度（基础设施落后）、巴西（生物燃料作为替代品）和日本电动汽车销售增长的预期（专注于混合动力和电池以外的能源）。

•不过，人们更有信心在没有政府帮助的情况下，电动汽车将实现与内燃机（ICE）汽车的成本平价。 82% 的人认为，在未来 10 年内，电动汽车可以在没有补贴的情况下得到广泛采用。 21%（是 2021 年比例的三倍）认为政府不应为电动汽车提供任何直接消费者补贴。

数字消费者

• 随着新模式、进入者和技术的激增，高管们相信未来五年消费者的购买决策将侧重于提升性能和品牌形象。 数据隐私和安全也是购买决策的关键因素。

•预计汽车客户将越来越多地在线购物，这为制造商提供了直接向消费者销售以及通过经销商在线销售的机会。 传统电子商务玩家也将争夺购车者。

•汽车业高管对售后收入前景非常乐观。 62% 的受访者非常有信心，消费者愿意为电动汽车充电、汽车维修分析、高级驾驶员辅助和其他无线更新等软件服务支付每月订阅费。

• 高管们认为汽车制造商继续将保险市场视为重要的增长机会，但他们已将重点从与保险公司竞争转移到与他们合作或向他们出售数据。

脆弱的供应链

• 高管们仍然非常关注商品和零部件的供应，尤其是半导体，以及电工钢和轻质材料等对提高燃油效率和延长电池续航里程至关重要的产品。

• 为应对供应的脆弱性，汽车制造商将重点放在近岸外包和在岸外包上，以努力减少对一两个国家的依赖。

新技术和新进入者

• 许多高管认为，到 2030 年，苹果将进入汽车市场并成为电动汽车领域的领导者，在调查中的排名从 2021 年的第九位上升至第四位。预计特斯拉仍将是电动汽车市场的领导者。

• 无论哪家公司成为领导者，十分之九的高管表示，初创企业将对汽车行业产生巨大影响。

•超过五分之一的人表示他们极有可能出售其业务的非战略部分，因为竞争需要大量投资。

•合同制造将变得更具战略性。