麦肯锡: 2024 年全球能源展望报告 (英文 40 页)

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报告概况

《全球能源展望》由麦肯锡全球能源与材料业务部门的能源解决方案部门与麦肯锡可持续发展和先进工业业务部门密切合作编写。麦肯锡坚持我们的立场，即世界需要进行重大路线调整才能实现与《巴黎协定》相一致的气候目标，我们的研究重点是帮助全球利益相关者实现这些目标。

《全球能源展望 2024》提供了《巴黎协定》规定的 1.5° 路径中 68 个行业和 78 种燃料的详细需求前景，以及三个自下而上的能源转型情景。这些情景今年进行了重新设计，以更好地反映不断变化的全球条件，包括地缘政治挑战、日益复杂的供应链和更高的通货膨胀。它们共同探讨了潜在的结果，包括可持续转型（一种可行的情景，即可持续性成为全球优先事项，各国尽管面临挑战，但仍协调一致地实现脱碳）通过延续当前的能源转型势头，到以脱碳的碎片化反应为特征的较慢演变。这些情景的数据来自各种来源，包括国际能源署 (IEA)、能源研究所、欧盟统计局、政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC)、牛津经济研究院、联合国、美国农业部 (USDA) 和美国能源信息署等。

这些广泛的情景旨在展示不同途径的影响，并为决策者提供事实基础。 但是，这些情景并非详尽无遗地涵盖所有可能的结果，也不会有任何单个情景完全按照我们的描述展开。 在本报告中的某些情况下，我们可能会重点介绍最能说明趋势的特定情景，但这并不意味着我们认为这种情景更有可能或更不可能反映实际结果。 本报告中的见解基于当前可用的数据，但随着能源转型的不断推进，多种因素可能会影响现实世界的结果。

关于能源解决方案：能源解决方案是麦肯锡专注于能源领域的全球市场情报和分析小组。该团队利用一套综合的市场模型、专有行业数据、领先的行业基准、先进的分析工具和全球行业专家网络，帮助组织做出明智的战略、战术和运营决策。它与整个能源价值链上的领先公司合作，帮助他们管理风险、优化组织并提高绩效。

关于全球能源与材料业务：麦肯锡全球能源与材料业务在融合的能源、材料和自然资源供应链中部署其深刻的见解、功能能力以及专有的基准和数据解决方案，以帮助为利益相关者创造巨大而持久的价值。在高级分析和全球团队力量的指导下，它为支持当今关键基础设施生态系统的各个部门带来了独特的行业视角。该业务很自豪能够与数百家主要行业参与者合作，成为战略和职能转型方面领先且最全面的顾问，使客户能够加速脱碳并实现能源、材料和食品转型。

关于麦肯锡公司：麦肯锡是一家全球管理咨询公司，致力于帮助组织加速可持续和包容性增长。该公司与私营、公共和社会部门的客户合作，解决复杂问题并为所有利益相关者带来积极变化。该公司结合大胆的战略和变革性技术，帮助组织更可持续地创新，实现持久的绩效增长，并打造出为这一代和下一代蓬勃发展的员工队伍。

About this report

The Global Energy Perspective is produced by Energy Solutions, part of McKinsey’s Global Energy & Materials Practice, in close collaboration with McKinsey’s Sustainability and Advanced Industries practices. McKinsey is committed to our position that the world requires a major course correction to reach climate goals aligned with the Paris Agreement, and our research is focused on helping global stakeholders meet those targets.

The Global Energy Perspective 2024 offers a detailed demand outlook for 68 sectors and 78 fuels across a 1.5° pathway, as set out in the Paris Agreement, as well as three bottom-up energy transition scenarios. The scenarios have been redesigned this year to better reflect changing global conditions, including geopolitical challenges, increasingly complex supply chains, and higher inflation. Together, they explore potential outcomes, ranging from a sustainable transformation—a plausible scenario where sustainability becomes a global priority and nations coordinate toward decarbonization, despite the challenges—through a continuation of the current energy transition momentum, to a slower evolution characterized by a fragmented response to decarbonization. Data for these scenarios come from a variety of sources, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Energy Institute, Eurostat, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Oxford Economics, the United Nations, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the US Energy Information Administration, among others.

This broad range of scenarios is intended to show the implications of different pathways and to provide a fact base to inform decision makers. However, these scenarios are not exhaustive in the realm of all possible outcomes, nor will any individual scenario unfold exactly as we describe it. In certain cases in this report, we may highlight a particular scenario that best illustrates a trend, but this does not mean that we believe this scenario is more or less likely to reflect the actual outcome. The insights in this report are based on currently available data, but multiple factors could influence real-world outcomes as the energy transition continues to advance.

About Energy Solutions: Energy Solutions is McKinsey’s global market intelligence and analytics group focused on the energy sector. The group enables organizations to make well-informed strategic, tactical, and operational decisions by using an integrated suite of market models, proprietary industry data, leading industry benchmarks, advanced analytical tools, and a global network of industry experts. It works with leading companies across the entire energy value chain to help them manage risk, optimize their organizations, and improve performance.

About the Global Energy & Materials Practice: McKinsey’s Global Energy & Materials Practice deploys its deep insights, functional capabilities, and proprietary benchmark and data solutions across the converging energy, materials, and natural resources supply chains to help create substantial and long-lasting value for stakeholders. Guided by advanced analytics and the power of a global team, it brings distinctive industry perspectives across sectors that support today’s critical infrastructure ecosystems. The practice is proud to have partnered with hundreds of major industry players as the leading and most integrated advisor on strategic and functional transformations, enabling clients to accelerate decarbonization and realize the energy, materials, and food transitions.

About McKinsey & Company: McKinsey is a global management consulting firm committed to helping organizations accelerate sustainable and inclusive growth. The firm works with clients across the private, public, and social sectors to solve complex problems and create positive change for all their stakeholders. It combines bold strategies and transformative technologies to help organizations innovate more sustainably, achieve lasting gains in performance, and build workforces that will thrive for this generation and those to come.