麦肯锡：12项可能改变世界的破坏性技术（英文 180页）

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研究报告从100种技术中挑选出12项经济效益最高的技术，然后分析这些技术可能的应用方式，以及可创造的价值，并以经济效益排名。报告估计2025年全球经济产出为100万亿美元。
　　下面看看这些技术是什么：
　　第一名：移动互联网
　　应用的技术包括无线技术、小型、成本低廉的运算与储存设备，先进的显示科技、自然用户接口，以及先进但价格低廉的电池。可用于提高劳动生产力，远程监控系统，减少治疗慢性疾病的成本。预估移动互联网在2025年带来3.7万亿至10.8万亿美元的经济效益。
　　第二名：知识工作的自动化
　　例如以智能软件系统取代人工来处理顾客服务电话。预估该技术可带来5.2万亿至6.7万亿美元的经济效益。
　　第三名：物联网
　　在物体中嵌入传感器，监控工厂中产品的流动。
　　第四名：云计算
　　厂商可透过网络提供服务，也可增强企业信息科技的生产力。
　　第五名：机器人技术
　　未来机器人会发展得更敏感、灵巧、更有智慧，可完成以往认为过于细致或不符经济效益的工作。若用于医学上，机械人手术系统可降低风险，机器义肢可恢复截肢者或老人的四肢功能。
　　第六名：自动或半自动导航与驾驶的交通工具
　　除了方便外，还可避免严重交通意外发生，可拯救3万至15万人的性命。
　　第七名：新一代基因组学
　　以快速、低廉的成本完成基因组定序，进行先进的分析以，用于合成生物，可应用在治疗疾病、发展农业上，还可以生产高价值物质。
　　排名八到十二的其他技术包括能源储存、3D打印、更强韧和更有传导性的先进材料、石油和天然气探勘与发现，以及再生能源。
　　大数据（Big Data）在报告中并未列为独立技术，麦肯锡解释称，大数据是这12项科技中许多技术的基石。包括自动化工作、机器人技术、基因组学都少不了大数据使用。
　　报告呼吁，在科技不断演进同时，企业领导人应持续更新组织策略，确保公司保持前瞻性，并使用技术增强内部绩效。对企业来说，破坏性科技可扭转市场局面，创造出全新的产品与服务，带来新商机。决策者则可利用先进技术处理运营上的困难，例如使用物联网来改善基础建设管理，或利用移动互联网创造新的教育与训练系统，让公共服务更有效率。

 

 

 The relentless parade of new technologies is unfolding on many fronts. Almost every advance is billed as a breakthrough, and the list of “next big things” grows ever longer. Not every emerging technology will alter the business or social landscape—but some truly do have the potential to disrupt the status quo, alter the way people live and work, and rearrange value pools. It is therefore critical that business and policy leaders understand which technologies will matter to them and prepare accordingly.

Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy, a report from the McKinsey Global Institute, cuts through the noise and identifies 12 technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. The report also looks at exactly how these technologies could change our world, as well as their benefits and challenges, and offers guidelines to help leaders from businesses and other institutions respond.

We estimate that, together, applications of the 12 technologies discussed in the report could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year in 2025. This estimate is neither predictive nor comprehensive. It is based on an in-depth analysis of key potential applications and the value they could create in a number of ways, including the consumer surplus that arises from better products, lower prices, a cleaner environment, and better health.

Some technologies detailed in the report have been gestating for years and thus will be familiar. Others are more surprising. Examples of the 12 disruptive technologies include:

Advanced robotics—that is, increasingly capable robots or robotic tools, with enhanced “senses,” dexterity, and intelligence—can take on tasks once thought too delicate or uneconomical to automate. These technologies can also generate significant societal benefits, including robotic surgical systems that make procedures less invasive, as well as robotic prosthetics and “exoskeletons” that restore functions of amputees and the elderly.

 

 

 

Next-generation genomics marries the science used for imaging nucleotide base pairs (the units that make up DNA) with rapidly advancing computational and analytic capabilities. As our understanding of the genomic makeup of humans increases, so does the ability to manipulate genes and improve health diagnostics and treatments. Next-generation genomics will offer similar advances in our understanding of plants and animals, potentially creating opportunities to improve the performance of agriculture and to create high-value substances—for instance, ethanol and biodiesel—from ordinary organisms, such as E. coli bacteria.

Energy-storage devices or physical systems store energy for later use. These technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries and fuel cells, already power electric and hybrid vehicles, along with billions of portable consumer electronics. Over the coming decade, advancing energy-storage technology could make electric vehicles cost competitive, bring electricity to remote areas of developing countries, and improve the efficiency of the utility grid.

The potential benefits of the technologies discussed in the report are tremendous—but so are the challenges of preparing for their impact. If business and government leaders wait until these technologies are exerting their full influence on the economy, it will be too late to capture the benefits or react to the consequences. While the appropriate responses will vary by stakeholder and technology, we find that certain guiding principles can help businesses and governments as they plan for the effects of disruptive technologies.

• Business leaders should keep their organizational strategies updated in the face of continually evolving technologies, ensure that their organizations continue to look ahead, and use technologies to improve internal performance. Disruptive technologies can change the game for businesses, creating entirely new products and services, as well as shifting pools of value between producers or from producers to consumers. Organizations will often need to use business-model innovations to capture some of that value. Leaders need to plan for a range of scenarios, abandoning assumptions about where competition and risk could come from, and not be afraid to look beyond long-established models. Organizations will also need to keep their employees’ skills up-to-date and balance the potential benefits of emerging technologies with the risks they sometimes pose.
• Policy makers can use advanced technology to address their own operational challenges (for example, by deploying the Internet of Things to improve infrastructure management). The nature of work will continue to change, and that will require strong education and retraining programs. To address challenges that the new technologies themselves will bring, policy makers can use some of those very technologies—for example, by creating new educational and training systems with the mobile Internet, which can also help address an ever-increasing productivity imperative to deliver public services more efficiently and effectively. To develop a more nuanced and useful view of technology’s impact, governments may also want to consider new metrics that capture more than GDP effects. This approach can help policy makers balance the need to encourage growth with their responsibility to look out for the public welfare as new technologies reshape economies and lives.