世界银行：2024 年全球经济展望( 英文 230页)

---

Global Economic Prospects 2024

全球展望。

 预计 2024 年全球经济增速将放缓至 2.4%，这是连续第三年减速，反映出为遏制数十年高通胀、限制性信贷条件以及全球贸易和投资疲软而采取的紧缩货币政策的滞后和持续影响。 ment。 近期前景出现分化，主要经济体增长疲软，而基本面坚实的新兴市场和发展中经济体 (EMDE) 的状况有所改善。 与此同时，由于债务和融资成本上升，具有明显脆弱性的新兴市场经济体的前景仍然不稳定。 前景的下行风险占主导地位。 继俄罗斯联邦入侵乌克兰之后，近期中东冲突加剧了地缘政治风险。 冲突升级可能导致能源价格飙升，对全球活动和通胀产生更广泛的影响。 其他风险包括与实际利率上升、持续通胀、中国增长弱于预期、贸易进一步碎片化以及气候变化相关灾难相关的金融压力。

在此背景下，政策制定者面临着巨大的挑战和艰难的权衡。 需要加强国际合作以减免债务，特别是针对最贫穷国家； 应对气候变化并促进能源转型； 促进贸易流动； 并缓解粮食不安全状况。 新兴市场和发展中经济体央行需要确保通胀预期保持良好锚定，并确保金融体系具有弹性。 公共债务和借贷成本上升限制了财政空间，并对寻求在满足投资需求的同时提高财政可持续性的新兴市场经济体（尤其是信用评级较低的新兴市场经济体）构成了重大挑战。 大宗商品出口商面临着应对大宗商品价格波动的额外挑战，这凸显了强有力的政策框架的必要性。 为了促进长期增长，需要进行结构性改革来加速投资、提高生产率增长并缩小劳动力市场的性别差距。

区域前景。

 尽管预计大多数新兴市场和发展中经济体地区的增长将有所改善，但总体前景仍然黯淡。 预计东亚和太平洋地区今年的增长将放缓，主要是由于中国、欧洲、中亚以及南亚的增长放缓。 预计拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的增长在 2023 年的疲弱基础上只会略有改善。 在石油产量增加的支持下，预计中东和北非以及撒哈拉以南非洲地区的经济增长将更加显着，反映出从近期疲软状态中的复苏。 到 2025 年，随着全球经济复苏，大多数地区的增长预计将加强。

投资加速的魔力。

投资推动经济增长，有助于减少贫困，对于新兴市场和发展中经济体 (EMDE) 应对气候变化和实现其他关键发展目标不可或缺。 如果不采取进一步的政策行动，这些经济体的投资增长可能在本十年剩余时间内保持不温不火。 但它可以被提升。 本章首次对新兴市场经济体的投资加速进行了全面分析，即投资增长以相对较快的速度持续增长的时期。 在过去 70 年的这些时期，投资增长率通常每年跃升至 10% 以上，是其他（非加速）年份增长率的三倍多。 投资加速的国家往往会获得经济上的意外之财：产出每年增长约2个百分点，生产率每年增长1.3个百分点。 大多数此类事件还带来了其他好处：通胀下降、财政和外部平衡改善、国家贫困率下降。 大多数加速紧随或伴随着旨在改善宏观经济稳定、结构改革或两者兼而有之的政策转变。 这些政策行动与运作良好的机构相结合特别有利于刺激投资加速。 在很多情况下，良好的外部环境对投资加速也发挥了至关重要的作用。

大宗商品出口国的财政政策：一个持久的挑战。

 与其他 EMDE 相比，大宗商品出口新兴市场和发展中经济体 (EMDE) 的财政政策顺周期性高出约 30%，波动性高出约 40%。财政政策的顺周期性和波动性（具有一些共同的潜在驱动因素）都会损害经济增长，因为它们会放大商业周期。 结构性政策，包括汇率灵活性和放宽对国际金融交易的限制，有助于减少财政顺周期性和财政波动。 通过在汇率制度、跨境资金流动限制和财政规则的运用等方面采用发达经济体的平均政策，大宗商品出口型新兴市场经济体可以通过以下方式将其人均 GDP 增长率每四到五年提高约 1 个百分点： 减少财政政策波动。 此类政策应得到可持续、精心设计和以稳定为导向的财政机构的支持，这些机构可以帮助在大宗商品价格上涨期间建立缓冲，为随后的价格暴跌做好准备。 对财政纪律的坚定承诺对于这些机构有效实现其目标至关重要。

Executive Summary 

Global outlook. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.4 percent in 2024—the third consecu-tive year of deceleration—reflecting the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policies to rein in decades-high inflation, restrictive credit conditions, and anemic global trade and invest-ment. Near-term prospects are diverging, with subdued growth in major economies alongside improving conditions in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) with solid fundamentals. Meanwhile, the outlook for EMDEs with pronounced vulnerabilities remains precarious amid elevated debt and financing costs. Downside risks to the outlook predomi-nate. The recent conflict in the Middle East, coming on top of the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, has heightened geopolitical risks. Conflict escalation could lead to surging energy prices, with broader implications for global activity and inflation. Other risks include financial stress related to elevated real interest rates, persistent inflation, weaker-than-expected growth in China, further trade fragmentation, and climate change-related disasters.  

Against this backdrop, policy makers face enormous challenges and difficult trade-offs. International cooperation needs to be strength-ened to provide debt relief, especially for the poorest countries; tackle climate change and foster the energy transition; facilitate trade flows; and alleviate food insecurity. EMDE central banks need to ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that financial systems are resilient. Elevated public debt and borrowing costs limit fiscal space and pose significant challenges to EMDEs—particularly those with weak credit ratings—seeking to improve fiscal sustainability while meeting investment needs. Commodity exporters face the additional challenge of coping with commodity price fluctuations, underscoring the need for strong policy frameworks. To boost longer-term growth, structural reforms are needed to accelerate investment, improve productivity growth, and close gender gaps in labor markets. 

Regional prospects. Although some improve-ments in growth are expected in most EMDE regions, the overall outlook remains subdued. Growth this year is projected to soften in East Asia and Pacific—mainly on account of slower growth in China—Europe and Central Asia, and South Asia. Only a slight improvement in growth, from a weak base in 2023, is expected for Latin America and the Caribbean. More marked pickups in growth are projected for the Middle East and North Africa, supported by increased oil production, and Sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting recovery from recent weakness. In 2025, growth is projected to strengthen in most regions as the global recovery firms. 

The Magic of Investment Accelerations. Invest-ment powers economic growth, helps drive down poverty, and will be indispensable for tackling climate change and achieving other key develop-ment goals in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Without further policy action, investment growth in these economies is likely to remain tepid for the remainder of this decade. But it can be boosted. This chapter offers the first comprehensive analysis of investment accelerations—periods in which there is a sustained increase in investment growth to a relatively rapid rate—in EMDEs. During these episodes over the past seven decades, investment growth typically jumped to more than 10 percent per year, which is more than three times the growth rate in other (non-acceleration) years. Countries that had investment accelerations often reaped an economic windfall: output growth increased by about 2 percentage points and productivity growth increased by 1.3 percentage points per year. Other benefits also materialized in the majority of such episodes: inflation fell, fiscal and external balances improved, and the national poverty rate declined. Most accelerations followed, or were accompanied by, policy shifts intended to improve macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, or both. These policy actions were particularly conducive to sparking invest-ment accelerations when combined with well-functioning institutions. A benign external environment also played a crucial role in catalyz-ing investment accelerations in many cases. 

Fiscal Policy in Commodity Exporters: An Enduring Challenge. Fiscal policy has been about 30 percent more procyclical and about 40 percent more volatile in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) than in other EMDEs. Both procycli-cality and volatility of fiscal policy—which share some underlying drivers—hurt economic growth because they amplify business cycles. Structural policies, including exchange rate flexibility and the easing of restrictions on international financial transactions, can help reduce both fiscal procyclicality and fiscal volatility. By adopting average advanced-economy policies regarding exchange rate regimes, restrictions on cross-border financial flows, and the use of fiscal rules, commodity-exporting EMDEs can increase their GDP per capita growth by about 1 percentage point every four to five years through the reduction in fiscal policy volatility. Such policies should be supported by sustainable, well-designed, and stability-oriented fiscal institutions that can help build buffers during commodity price booms to prepare for any subsequent slump in prices. A strong commitment to fiscal disci-pline is critical for these institutions to be effective in achieving their objectives. 

Summary of Contents

Chapter 1 Global Outlook ....... 1

Box 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks ....... 16

Box 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries ..... 24

Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks ..... 51

East Asia and Pacific ....... 53

Europe and Central Asia ..... 59

Latin America and the Caribbean ....... 67

Middle East and North Africa..... 73

South Asia ...... 81

Sub-Saharan Africa ..... 87

Chapter 3 The Magic of Investment Accelerations ..... 97

Box 3.1 Sparking investment accelerations: Lessons from country case studies ..... 119

Chapter 4 Fiscal Policy in Commodity Exporters: An Enduring Challenge ...... 149

Box 4.1 How does procyclical fiscal policy affect output growth? ..... 159

Box 4.2 Do fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds make a difference? Lessons from country case studies ....... 171

Statistical Appendix ....... 193

Selected Topics ...... 200