2020麦肯锡全球支付报告(英文 38 页)

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The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report

Foreword

The public health crisis triggered by COVID-19 has had an impact on nearly all aspects of daily life for people across the globe, and has put the world economy on an uncertain footing. For the payments industry, the pandemic and its consequences have accelerated a series of existing trends in both consumer and business behaviors, and introduced new developments, such as a restructuring of both supply chains and cross-border trade. Ongoing shifts toward e-commerce, digital payments 

(including contactless), instant payments, and cash displacement have all been significantly boosted in the past six months. And while a degree of reversion to past behavior is likely for some of these shifts, the overall trajectory for these trends has received a strong push forward. Overall, the crisis is compressing a half-decade’s worth of change into less than one year—and in areas that are typically slow to evolve: customer behavior, economic models, and payments operating models. As with most structural shifts, challenges will inevitably arise.

The impact of the crisis has not been consistent across sectors or geographies, of course. Travel and entertainment, which had been among the most advanced e-commerce sectors, was hit particularly hard and faces an uncertain path to recovery. Payments providers in regions that have lagged in digitization, meanwhile, in many cases possess greater potential for revenue increases in the new environment. On the other hand, a protracted period of low interest rates, which began before the current crisis, will pressure payments revenues, as will a persistent slowdown in economic activity.

This is the context in which we release our annual report on the global payments industry. As always, these insights are informed by McKinsey’s Global Payments Map and by continuing dialogue with practitioners throughout the payments ecosystem. 

Given the impact of the changes and challenges in 2020, however, we are taking a different lens to our analysis, focusing more on the current moment and on the future, than on examining past growth. Our first chapter briefly tells the story of 2019—a solid year with broad-based revenue growth—but focuses primarily on current developments and takes a forward-looking view of the payments landscape. It also details the actions we believe payments providers will need to take to weather the pandemic and position themselves for the “next normal.” 

Our “now-cast” analysis of 2020 paints a contrast between the first and second halves of the year—namely, an estimated 22 percent payments revenue decline in the first half will be softened somewhat by stronger performance in the second half. Still, we expect full-year 2020 global payments revenue to be roughly 7 percent lower than it was in 2019—a $140-billion decline roughly equal to recent years’ annual gains, and 11 to 13 percent below our pre- pandemic projection. Beyond this, in some countries and segments, the likely sustained increase in digital penetration could result in a recovery of revenue pools to levels matching our pre-COVID-19 expectations for 2021.

In following chapters, we explore four areas of payments we consider critical to achieving success in the context of accelerated change. Like many aspects of payments, the merchant-acquiring business was already undergoing significant transformation. Consolidation had driven scale economy imperatives, and non-bank market entrants were gaining inroads with underserved verticals. Our experts detail the need to redefine acquiring offerings to encompass a full suite of value-added services extending well beyond payments settlement—including fraud controls and cart optimization for the fast-growing e-commerce segment. In a separate chapter we look at the specific opportunity for small- and medium-size enterprises, a segment that has historically been expensive to serve for large incumbents, but which has been the focus of many fintech attackers and is well overdue for a closer look.    

Supply chain finance has long been considered to be a source of untapped value, but unlike other payments sectors, has struggled to develop enough momentum to address its structural challenges. 

前言

由COVID-19引发的公共卫生危机已几乎影响了全球人们的日常生活的各个方面，并使世界经济处于不确定的基础上。对于支付行业而言，大流行及其后果加速了消费者和商业行为方面的一系列现有趋势，并引入了新的发展趋势，例如重组了供应链和跨境贸易。正在进行的向电子商务，数字支付的转变

（包括非接触式），即时付款和现金流转在过去六个月中都得到了显着提高。尽管其中一些变化可能会使人们恢复到过去的行为，但这些趋势的总体轨迹已经得到了强有力的推动。总体而言，这场危机将不到十年的变革价值压缩到了不到一年的时间里，而在那些通常发展缓慢的领域：客户行为，经济模式和支付运营模式。与大多数结构性转变一样，挑战将不可避免地出现。

当然，危机的影响在各个部门或地区之间并不一致。一直是最先进的电子商务行业之一的旅行和娱乐业受到的打击尤其严重，并且面临着不确定的复苏之路。同时，在数字化方面落后的地区，支付提供商在许多情况下在新环境中拥有更大的收入增长潜力。另一方面，在当前危机之前开始的长期的低利率时期，将给支付收入带来压力，经济活动的持续放缓也将给它造成压力。

在此背景下，我们发布了有关全球支付行业的年度报告。与往常一样，这些见解是由麦肯锡的“全球支付地图”以及与整个支付生态系统中的从业人员持续对话所获得的。

但是，考虑到2020年变化和挑战的影响，我们的分析采用了不同的视角，更多地关注当前时刻和未来，而不是研究过去的增长。我们的第一章简要介绍了2019年的故事，这是一个收入基础广泛而又稳定的一年，但主要侧重于当前的发展，并对付款领域具有前瞻性的看法。它还详细说明了我们认为支付服务提供商需要采取的行动，以度过大流行并为“下一个常态”做好准备。

我们对2020年的“现浇”分析在今年上半年和下半年之间形成了对比，即，上半年估计22％的支付收入下降将因下半年的强劲表现而有所缓解。尽管如此，我们预计2020年全年的全球支付收入将比2019年下降约7％-减少1400亿美元，大致等于近年来的年度收益，比我们的大流行前预测低11％至13％。除此之外，在某些国家和地区，数字渗透率可能会持续增长，这可能会使收入池恢复到与COVID-19之前2021年的预期相符的水平。

在接下来的章节中，我们探讨了四个付款领域，我们认为这是在加速变革的背景下取得成功的关键。像支付的许多方面一样，收购商人的业务已经在进行重大变革。合并推动了规模经济的当务之急，而非银行市场进入者则因垂直行业服务水平低下而进入市场。我们的专家详细介绍了重新定义收购产品的需求，以涵盖一整套增值服务，远远超出了付款结算的范围，其中包括针对快速增长的电子商务领域的欺诈控制和购物车优化。在单独的章节中，我们着眼于中小型企业的特殊机会，该领域历来为大型企业服务是昂贵的，但已成为许多金融科技攻击者关注的焦点，因此早就应该仔细研究。

长期以来，供应链金融一直被认为是未开发价值的来源，但与其他支付行业不同，它一直在努力发展足够的动力来应对其结构性挑战。