麦肯锡：亚洲支付的未来报告(英文 25 页)

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The future of payments in Asia

Introduction

Payments have never been as important to Asia’s financial services ecosystem as they are today. Asia has outpaced all other regions in terms of payments-revenue growth over the past several years.  The region is also the largest contributor to global payments revenue, generating over 

$900 billion in 2019, nearly half the global total. The role of payments in Asia’s overall banking landscape has expanded as well, now representing 44 percent of aggregate banking revenues, compared with a third as recently as 2007.

The dollars involved tell only a fraction of the story, however. Payments remain the bedrock of the customer relationship for both consumers and businesses, representing the most natural opportunity for ongoing engagement, keeping the institution’s brand top of mind, and creating a practical reason to keep a healthy level of funds on account. Payments have never been more important for traditional banks, longstanding service providers, and fintech innovators aiming to disrupt the status quo.

The global effects of COVID-19 prompted a reset in the payments ecosystem. In most cases, the result was an acceleration of trends—such as increased digitization—that were already underway. Although we forecast a decline of 1 to 8 percent in Asia’s 2020 payments revenue, the industry’s solid foundation is poised to foster a relatively rapid return to mid-to-high single-digit growth rates. Asia’s payments sector remains well positioned to exceed $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2022 or 2023. The first chapter of this report explores these dynamics in greater detail.

Our perspectives are informed by ongoing dialogue with industry leaders and McKinsey’s global network of payments experts, and by our work with payments providers in the region. McKinsey’s Global Payments Map also provides a quantitative foundation of longitudinal revenue and volume data. Additionally, our recently launched Asia Payments Practitioner Survey (APPS) polled payments business leaders in 13 Asian markets to document their strategic perspectives and illuminate key themes and areas of consensus. 

Asia’s future payments landscape will look quite different from the ecosystem currently in place. We have distilled the fundamental themes governing this future vision into a list we call the Five Cs: connected commerce, contactless consumers, a cashless economy, cross-border activity, and consolidation. Our goal is to identify a comprehensive set of trends that will reshape the payments industry, and to initiate a dialogue on how Asia’s payments ecosystem of 2025 will differ from the current state.

The second chapter of this report considers the likely scenarios for the Five Cs, based on our analysis of the APPS findings. The third chapter outlines a series of potential actions for various sets of players across the ecosystem: banks, acquirers, card networks/schemes, nonbanks and tech firms focused both on financial services and other areas, and governments and regulatory bodies. Naturally, significant interdependencies exist across these constituencies; notably, there are very few areas in which these groups’ objectives are in direct conflict.

介绍

支付对当今亚洲金融服务生态系统的重要性从未像现在这样重要。在过去几年中，亚洲的支付收入增长已超过所有其他地区。该地区还是全球支付收入的最大贡献者，

2019年为9000亿美元，接近全球总额的一半。付款在亚洲整体银行业格局中的作用也在扩大，目前已占银行总收入的44％，而最近的一次是2007年。

然而，所涉及的美元只是故事的一小部分。对于消费者和企业而言，付款仍然是客户关系的基石，这是持续参与，保持机构品牌知名度的最自然机会，并为保持合理的资金水平创造了实际的理由。对于传统银行，长期服务提供商以及旨在破坏现状的金融科技创新者而言，支付从未像现在这样重要。

COVID-19的全球影响促使支付生态系统重新设置。在大多数情况下，结果是加速了已经在发生的趋势，例如数字化的增长。尽管我们预测亚洲2020年的支付收入将下降1％至8％，但该行业的坚实基础已准备就绪，可促使相对快速地恢复到中高个位数的增长率。到2022年或2023年，亚洲支付行业的年收入仍将超过1万亿美元。本报告的第一章详细探讨了这些动态。

我们与行业领导者和麦肯锡全球支付专家网络的持续对话以及与该地区支付提供商的合作为我们的观点提供了依据。麦肯锡的全球支付地图还为纵向收入和交易量数据提供了定量基础。此外，我们最近启动的《亚洲支付从业人员调查》（APPS）对13个亚洲市场的支付业务领导者进行了调查，以记录他们的战略观点并阐明关键主题和共识领域。

亚洲未来的支付格局将与目前的生态系统大不相同。我们已将支配此未来愿景的基本主题提炼为一个列表，我们将其称为“五个C”：关联商务，非接触式消费者，无现金经济，跨境活动和合并。我们的目标是确定一系列将重塑支付行业的趋势，并就2025年亚洲的支付生态系统与当前状况有何不同展开对话。

本报告第二章根据对APPS调查结果的分析，考虑了五个C的可能情况。第三章概述了整个生态系统中各种参与者的一系列潜在行动：银行，收单方，卡网络/方案，非银行和专注于金融服务和其他领域的科技公司以及政府和监管机构。自然，这些选区之间存在着重大的相互依存关系。值得注意的是，这些团体的目标很少有直接冲突的领域。